Due to the warmer than normal winter months already underway in the southern hemisphere, it is forecast that this polar vortex may (again) be less intense than last year. However, where airbound warmer air is caught more tightly (polar vortex), it is released for the land masses, and this circulation of weather led by the Pacific weather pattern called the Indian monsoon is strongest and in its wake is known as an “Omicron” compared to our “delta”. We often hear about storms from the Atlantic Oceans interacting with storm systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Asia, but what about the other side of the world where warmer air meets cold air?
According to the CERTI National Weather Service in Pretoria, South Africa, over the past few weeks with the Asian monsoon there have been very high temperatures and dry conditions within South Africa, aided by a boost in trade winds that is akin to the “push” in the US and Western Europe with warm air from the tropics colliding with cold air from the Arctic and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
According to the CERTI National Weather Service in Pretoria, South Africa, over the past few weeks with the Asian monsoon there have been very high temperatures and dry conditions within South Africa, aided by a boost in trade winds that is akin to the “push” in the US and Western Europe with warm air from the tropics colliding with cold air from the Arctic and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
This past week (Nov. 9 to Nov. 12) saw temperatures exceed 40 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit) in Seville, Florida and 34 degrees Celsius (96 degrees Fahrenheit) in Cape Town. These high temperatures and the tropical jet stream (stronger than normal) especially in South Africa have fostered heavy winds in the Cape Peninsula area. In addition, strong winds have created cold air over the warm waters of the Namib-Naukluft delta, increasing the relative humidity above the 100 percent mark and creating temperature spiking days with mid to late November temperatures ranging from 25 to 40 degrees Celsius.
Our 10 Most El Niño Years
Thanks to the monsoon pushing warmer tropical air to the Southern Hemisphere, the southern tip of Africa will see conditions that are similar to the 1930s. They are now receiving roughly 2x as much African trade winds as they did during the 1930s.
Of course, it is difficult to compare the two cyclones and the Big One scenarios because cold air will form very, very quickly and the destructive capabilities of the storm system would dwarf what the current systems are capable of. However, think of it this way; when hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to form, they seek position around the warm waters of the Gulf and Caribbean. Once they enter the warm waters, a giant sucking sound accompanies the storm system to capture cold air further north and east. This same sucking sound will often start from India, and over time track to the Pacific Ocean and along the India-Pakistan landmass.
“What we are doing is a great stroke of good luck for South Africa because at the end of the day, they need it more than we do”, John Bury, an AccuWeather meteorologist said of the cyclone brewing off the Indian Ocean. “The intensity of this cyclone is such that it can expand and form a new cycle here. This is so beneficial to them when you think about the monsoon like South Africa historically has to suffer its fair share of severe storms.”
However, it is important to note that South Africa isn’t the only one in the southern hemisphere that is suffering from unusually high temperatures. The Bahamas and Africa, Kenya, and Tanzania all have unusually warm over the past week.
The CERTI is predicting that this cyclone will give South Africa’s northeastern coast a wintry blizzard, a monsoon storm, and will most likely make it’s way into east Africa next week. Keep in mind this path of the warm tropic air moving northward will also allow the Arctic to pack on an additional prod until March.
Bottom line: South Africa (a member of the Southern Hemisphere) is now the victim of the huge year to date winter pattern developing right across the Pacific Ocean. The cyclone could bring about three cyclones to the southern United States over the next month or so.